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WHEAT AND RICE BUDGET

Sr. No. Estimated Central Pool Wheat Budget for 2016-17 (as on 01.07.16) -
- (in lakh tonnes) -
1 Opening balance as on 1st July 20151 301.81
2 Actual procurement during RMS 2016-17 (as reported on 01.07.2016)2 229.30
3 Total availability 301.81
4 Estimated offtake under TPDS from July 2016 to March 20173 183.03
5 Estimated offtake under OWS from July 2016 to March 20174 8.41
6 Expected additional festival/flood/drought/special allocations(July 2016 to March 2017)5 8.46
7 Estimated release under OMSS from July 2016 to March 20176 23.91
8 Export from Central Pool7 1.70
9 Total Offtake [ (4)+(5)+(6)+(7)+(8)] 225.50
10 Estimated opening balance as on 1st April, 2017[ (3) - (9) ] 76.31
11 Minimum Buffer norms + strategic reserve, as on 1st April 74.60
Sr. No. Notes
1 Based on stock position given by FCI
2 Wheat procurement during RMS 2016-17 has been reported to be 229.30 lakh tonnes
3 TPDS offtake has been assumed @ 100% of allocation for AAY, Priority and BPL allocations and 90% of allocation for APL/ tide over allocation. Monthly allocations assumed for the year are as follows; AAY 0.8725 lakh tonnes , BPL 1.325 lakh tonnes, Priority 20.001 lakh tonnes, APL 1.666 lakh tonnes, Tide over 0.449 lakh tonnes. Estimated monthly lifting (0.8725 + 1.325 + 20.001 + 90% of 1.666 + 90% of 0.449 lakh tonnes) is 24.103 lakh tonnes.
4 Offtake of allocation of 14.01 lakh tonnes under OWS has been assumed at 80% of allocation i.e. @0.934 lakh tonnes/month.
5 Offtake against the additional allocation of 14.10 lakh tonnes has been assumed to be 80%. The monthly offtake will be 0.94 lakh tonnes.
6 OMSS allocation during 2016-17 has been assumed to be 23.91 lakh tonnes. However, it may be noted that actual sale under OMSS will depend upon the market condition.
7 Department of Food & PD has committed to supply 1.7 lakh tonnes wheat to MEA for donation to Government of Afghanistan.
Sr. No. Country Budget for wheat for 2016-17 -
- ( in lakh tonnes) -
1 Total production (As per third advance estimates of DAC for crop year 2015-16) 940.40
2 Availability of wheat for food use (less 12.5% seed, feed and wastage) (wastage) 822.85
3 Opening balance in Central Pool as on 1st April, 2016 172.21
4 Imports 5.00
5 Exports from Central Pool 1 1.70
6 Export by private traders 7.30
7 Total available [ (2) + (3) + (4) – (5) - (6) ] 991.06
8 Consumption (food use) 2 818.50
9 Year ending stocks in Central Pool on 1st April, 2017 (estimated) 76.31
10 Minimum Buffer norms + strategic reserve, as on 1st April, 2016 74.60
11 Addition to private stock [ (7) - (8) - (9) ] 96.25
Sr. No. Notes
1 Department of Food & PD has committed to supply 1.7 lakh tonnes wheat to MEA for donation to Government of Afghanistan.
2 Consumption as per NCAER for 2012-13 was 818.5 lakh tons. Consumption demand for the year has been assumed to be the same.
Sr. No. Estimated Central Pool Rice Budget ( As on 1st July, 2016) -
- ( in lakh tonnes) -
1 Opening balance as on 1st July, 2016 1 246.69
2 Estimate of total procurement in KMS 2015-162 350.00
3 Actual Procurement during KMS 2015-16 (as on 1st July 2016) 340.54
4 Total availability [ (1) + (2) - (3) ] 256.15
5 Expected offtake under TPDS during July 2016 -Sept, 2016 3 72.31
6 Expected offtake under OWS during July 2016 - Sept, 2016 4 5.73
7 Expected additional festival/flood/drought/ special allocations5 1.85
8 Expected releases under OMSS6 3.56
9 Total Offtake [( 5) + (6) + (7) + (8) ] 83.45
10 Estimated balance as on 1st Oct, 2016 [ (4) - (9) ] 172.70
11 Minimum Buffer norms + strategic reserve, as on 1st Oct 102.50
Sr. No Notes
1 Figure given by FCI. This includes the rice equivalent to unmilled paddy of 52.55 lakh tonnes lying with State Agencies and FCI.
2 The total procurement during the season is expected to be 315.00 lakh tonnes
3 TPDS offtake has been assumed @ 100% of allocation for AAY, Priority and BPL allocations and 90% of allocation for APL/ tide over allocation. Monthly allocations assumed for the year are as follows; AAY 0.8725 lakh tonnes , BPL 1.325 lakh tonnes, Priority 20.001 lakh tonnes, APL 1.666 lakh tonnes, Tide over 0.449 lakh tonnes. Estimated monthly lifting (0.8725 + 1.325 + 20.001 + 90% of 1.666 + 90% of 0.449 lakh tonnes) is 24.103 lakh tonnes.
4 Off take under OWS has been assumed at 100 % of allocation @ (22.93/12= 1.910 lakh tonnes per month.
5 Offtake against the additional allocation of 9.23 lakh tonnes has been assumed to be 80%. The monthly offtake will be 0.615 lakh tonnes.
6 Release under OMSS for remaining 3 months has been assumed to be 3.56 LMT
Sr. No Country Budget for Rice for 2015-16 -
- ( in lakh tonnes) -
1 Estimated production KMS 2015-16 (Oct 15 -Sep 16) 1 1033.60
2 Availability of rice for food use (less 7.6% seed, feed and wastage) 955.05
3 Opening balance in Central Pool as on 01.10.2015 141.56
4 Exports of basmati rice2 42.00
5 Non-Basmati Exports (on diplomatic basis and on private account )3 73.00
6 Total available [ (2) + (3) – (4) – (5) ] 981.61
7 Consumption (food use) as per NSSO estimates 64th Round (ref. CACP report for KMS 2011-12 ) Round (ref. CACP report for KMS 2011-12 ) 868.50
8 Year ending stocks in Central Pool on 1.10.2016 (estimated) 172.70
9 Minimum Buffer norms + strategic reserve, as on 1st October 102.50
10 Addition to private stock [ (6) - (7) - (8) ] -59.59
Sr. No Notes
1 As per the 2nd advance estimates of DAC&FW
2 During KMS 2015-16 export of basmati rice has been assumed to be 42.0 lakh tons.
3 During KMS 2015-16 export of non-basmati rice has been assumed to be 73.0 lakh tons.
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